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How the Lions can clinch the NFC North and NFC No. 1 seed

By Colton Pouncy
From The New York Times

How the Lions can clinch the NFC North and NFC No. 1 seed

ALLEN PARK, Mich. -- Lions players and coaches hear what's being said of them. Injuries have derailed their season. People are feeling sorry for a 12-2 team. Their odds of making it to the Super Bowl have been greatly diminished. It's all out there -- on TV, social media, articles, you name it.

And truthfully, it's hard to ignore what the Lions have lost this year. There are 16 defenders on injured reserve and 21 players overall. Each week, Dan Campbell is forced to stand in front of local media and talk about another key starter lost for a significant amount of time. It's next man up until you run out of men, and it feels like the Lions are getting close.

Just don't tell them that.

"Nobody writes our story, man," Campbell said. "We're the only ones who write our own story. ...We have the pen."

Campbell is right. As things stand, everything is in front of this team. A second-consecutive division title. A first-round bye and home-field advantage in the NFC. It's all within reach, should they take care of business down the stretch.

Let's take a look at their path forward.

The NFC North race will essentially come down to the Lions and Vikings. Both teams are 12-2, both teams have a shot at the No. 1 seed and both teams are positioning themselves for what could be a winner-take-all finale in Week 18.

The Lions' remaining strength of schedule ranks 14th among teams, per projections via The Athletic's Austin Mock. They face the Bears (4-10) and 49ers (6-8) on the road and host the Vikings (12-2) to end the year. They avoid leaving things to chance by winning out. If it happens, they'd clinch the NFC North. However, the Vikings can also take the North by winning out themselves. Both teams control their futures, so to speak.

The Vikings finish with the Seahawks (8-6) in Seattle, the Packers (10-4) at home and the Lions (12-2) on the road. For as good as the Vikings have been, that's a bit of a gauntlet. It's the league's fourth-hardest remaining schedule, per Mock. The Vikings would need to beat teams with winning records in their final three games. They only have two wins against teams with a winning record (Packers, Texans) on the season -- none since September.

Let's play the hypothetical game for a moment and say the Vikings lose to either the Seahawks or Packers ahead of their Week 18 matchup in Detroit. If that happens, and the Lions beat the Bears and the 49ers in Weeks 16 and 17, they'll have clinched the NFC North prior to the Week 18 finale. The Lions might still need a win over the Vikings in Week 18 to clinch a first-round bye if the Eagles win their next two, but perhaps the Vikings rest their starters in that scenario, with the division out of reach.

If the Vikings win their next two vs. the Seahawks and Packers, and the Lions go 1-1 against the Bears and 49ers, Detroit can still win the division with a victory over the Vikings in Week 18. Both teams would finish 14-3, but the Lions would own several tiebreaking scenarios. If both teams are 13-3 entering Week 18, the winner would capture the No. 1 seed. The Lions would fall no further than the No. 5 seed, but the Vikings could potentially fall to the No. 6 seed.

So, the pressure is on Minnesota. They face a tougher schedule and have fewer paths to a division title. The Lions have a bit more breathing room.

Much like the division, the Lions can take matters into their own hands by winning their next three games. If that happens, the Eagles and Lions could win out and finish 15-2. The Lions would own the conference-record tiebreaker, though.

Given Philadelphia's schedule, that might be necessary. The Eagles, riding a 10-game winning streak, finish with the Commanders (9-5) on the road, then wrap up against the Cowboys (6-8) and the Giants (2-12) at home. Their remaining strength of schedule is the fourth-easiest in the league, per Mock's projections. It's not hard to envision a world in which they win out and take the No. 1 seed. But they have work to do.

The fastest way the Lions could lock up the No. 1 seed is if the Eagles lose to the Commanders or Cowboys, the Vikings lose to the Seahawks or Packers and the Lions beat the Bears and 49ers. That would clinch both the NFC North and a first-round bye for Detroit. Of those games, you have to think the Commanders and Packers have the best shot of knocking off the Eagles and Vikings. Then it would be on the Lions to take care of business on their end vs. the Bears and 49ers.

The Lions don't have to win out to earn the No. 1 seed. If the Lions, Eagles and Vikings all go 2-1 in their final three games to finish 14-3, the Lions would clinch the No. 1 seed. Even if that one loss is a head-to-head loss to the Vikings in Week 18.

The Eagles certainly aren't unbeatable. The Panthers almost played spoiler and beat Philadelphia a few weeks ago, and the Cowboys have won three of four. But, again, the Lions don't have to rely on others for help if they handle their own business.

There's almost been an annoyance by Lions coaches this week when asked about their chances down the stretch. It's understandable given where they are and what they've done this season.

"We're 12-2. We're 12-2 and the sky is falling?" Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn said this week. "We're going to the playoffs, we in the tournament. Why in the hell is the sky falling for us? What do we have to sit back and be sad (about)? We leave that up to you guys. We let you guys do that. Our job is to go play football and that's what we're going to continue to do. ...We have a chance to win out and accomplish everything that we want to accomplish. So why should we sit back and wallow and think that the sky is falling? It's dumb."

"We still control our destiny and have everything out in front of us," quarterback Jared Goff said. "We're in good shape. We're 12-2, another division game and hopefully can stay undefeated in the division and keep it rolling."

It's really as simple as that. The Lions are viewing this as a three-game season at this point. They know what they need to accomplish to close on a high note. Obviously, injuries have taken a toll, but the Lions believe they have enough to still position themselves well down the stretch.

A first-round bye would do wonders for a team as beat up as the Lions, and home-field advantage could be the difference between an early exit and a lengthy run. If they clinch the No. 1 seed, the Lions would either host a wild-card team like the Vikings or Packers or a division winner like the Buccanneers or Rams in their first-round matchup. Win that game, then you're hosting the NFC Championship, with a chance to return CB Carlton Davis and maybe some others who work their way back by then.

No matter what happens, the Lions have guaranteed themselves a chance by making the playoffs. Until then, it's one week at a time.

"I think anything can happen in this league and we knew injuries were going to happen going into the season and we don't want them to happen, but just like coach (Campbell) has been saying all week long, no one's going to write our story for us," Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson said. "We've got a great opportunity in front of us this week to win this game and then we already know that we're going to be a part of the dance and all bets are off once we get in there."

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