An abbreviated recital of the full commentary as detailed by the CBO. I was curious as to whether Trump is fibbing to us again. He mostly is. Nobody calls him out and people believe his nonsense. Read on . . .

The number of people entering the United States has increased sharply in recent years. Most of the increase comes from a surge in people whom the Congressional Budget Office categorizes as other foreign nationals. Some of them have received permission to enter or remain in the country, and some have not. More detail on the composition of immigrants in that category is provided in the CBO article. On the basis of pre-2020 trends, CBO would have expected the net immigration of people in that category to average around 200,000 per year. In the agency's projections, the net immigration of other foreign nationals exceeds that rate by a total of 8.7 million people over the 2021-2026 period. (CBO recognizes the recent increases.)

In this report, CBO describes how that 2021-2026 surge in immigration affects its baseline budget and economic projections for the 2024-2034 period. That is, this report looks at the incremental impact of the immigration surge and not at the effects of all people who immigrated in those years or who previously immigrated and were already residing in the United States. In addition, only the surge's effects on federal revenues, mandatory spending, and interest on the debt are examined in detail. The report provides a broad assessment of possible effects on federal discretionary funding; it does not include estimates of the surge's effects on state and local budgets.

The following explains how the CBO approached the surge in immigrant that Trump describes as problematic.

To isolate the effects of the increase in immigration in its baseline budget projections and the economic forecast that underlies them, CBO constructed a counterfactual scenario in which that increase does not occur. Instead, from 2021 to 2034, the net immigration of people in the other-foreign-national category totals 200,000 people per year (which, from 2027 on, is the same as in the baseline projections). The agency then created economic and budget projections for that counterfactual scenario and compared those outcomes with its economic forecast and baseline budget projections. The differences between outcomes under the two scenarios represent CBO's estimates of the effects of the surge in immigration.

CBO's estimates of the effects of the immigration surge on the federal budget and the economy are uncertain. The agency will continue to evaluate new data and other information as it becomes available. In retrospect, the CBO's evaluation are probably more accurate than the wild declarations of invasion by illegal and legal immigrants. Neither of which are liked by Trump. The CBO smooths the increases in their model (below) Budgetary Effects.

CBO estimates that the immigration surge will add $1.2 trillion in federal revenues over the 2024-2034 period. The annual increase in revenues grows over time and reaches $167 billion (or 2.2 percent of total revenues) in 2034 in the agency's projections. Individual income taxes and payroll taxes paid by immigrants who are part of the surge are responsible for most of the effects on revenues. In addition, the surge is projected to boost economic activity and, in turn, tax revenues.

The immigration surge adds $0.3 trillion to outlays for federal mandatory programs and net spending for interest on the debt over the 2024-2034 period in CBO's projections. Annual outlays for certain mandatory programs increase over time as more immigrants in the surge population and their children who are born in the United States receive benefits. In 2034, those benefits add $23 billion (or 0.4 percent) to total mandatory spending. In addition, the economywide effects of the surge boost annual spending by growing amounts that reach $27 billion in 2034. Most notably, spending for interest on the government's debt increases, primarily because of the higher interest rates resulting from the surge in immigration. In total, projected outlays in 2034 are boosted by $50 billion because of the surge.

Some of the projected budgetary effects of the immigration surge stems from broad changes in the economy the surge will bring about. In CBO's projections, The surge boosts total nominal gross domestic product (GDP) by $1.3 trillion (or 3.2 percent) in 2034 and by $8.9 trillion over the 2024-2034 period. The surge also increases the total amount of wages paid each year by a percentage that grows steadily over that period and reaches about 3 percent in 2034.

Those additional wages are a major contributor to the boost in revenues because they are subject to both payroll and income taxes. In addition, two main factors resulting from the surge - faster growth of the labor force and greater demand for residential investment - boost the rate of return on capital and put upward pressure on interest rates. The increases in interest rates are a major contributor to the boost in federal spending.

In the labor market, wages for workers in the surge population start out below the wages of other people in the United States with similar levels of education, on average, and converge over time in CBO's estimates. Through 2026, the average wage growth of people in the United States who are not part of the surge is slightly less than it would have been without the surge because the surge slows the growth of wages of people with 12 or fewer years of education. That pattern reverses in later years as the average wage growth of people who are not part of the surge increases slightly because of higher innovation-related productivity and because the increase in the number of less-educated workers boosts the demand for more-educated people to work with them.

Perhaps, I am misreading this. I do not believe I am. The immigration results over time will add to economic growth and also create a larger labor force. Two positives going forward.