APK Oasis

Six games to go: A look at the Bengals' playoff odds as the team enters bye week

By Kurt Knue
From WLWT5

Six games to go: A look at the Bengals' playoff odds as the team enters bye week

With just six games in the regular season remaining for the Bengals, the team's playoff chances are now seeming ever more elusive for a team that just three seasons ago played in the Super Bowl.Standing at a 4-7 season record, the team has squandered many win opportunities against teams that they have been able to beat in past seasons.Now, oddsmakers are increasingly closer to reaching a verdict about whether the team will be able to make it back to the playoffs this year, and every week continues to look worse.The result? As the Bengals' bye week rolls around in Week 12, the NFL's official Playoff Picture currently gives the team a 12% chance to make the playoffs. Although these odds from the NFL may perhaps be at the low end of the spectrum, as media organizations such as The New York Times, (14%) ESPN (15%) and The Athletic (19%) give slightly better chances, the overall picture still remains clear.The 2024 season started on a low note from the very first game -- an ominous loss to the New England Patriots. In their most recent match-up against the Patriots before this season in 2022, the Bengals won 22-18. However, this year, the Bengals lost 16-10 to the Patriots in their opening game of the year in what was widely considered to be an "easy win" for the team.Despite this, the team has still managed to beat many other teams on the bottom of the NFL's standings this year, racking up wins against the Carolina Panthers, New York Giants, Cleveland Browns and Las Vegas Raiders.However, when it comes to teams considered among the best in the league this year, including the Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens and Philadelphia Eagles, the team has come up disastrously short each and every time.Now, the team has just six games to turn its season around. While it's certainly not impossible, it's shaping up to be a very tall order for the orange and black at this point in the season.What makes the Bengals' situation so precarious is that even one more loss is likely to tank their season entirely, while two more will all but guarantee it. According to The New York Times' interactive oddsmaker, a loss against the Pittsburgh Steelers next week will send the team's postseason odds down to 3%. However, a win against the Steelers will raise the team's current postseason odds from 14% to 19%.The two remaining games against the Steelers will likely be the two most important games for the team over these next two months, based on how they will affect the team's odds. The Steelers are only one of two teams that the Bengals will face for the rest of the season that, as of now, have positive win records in the NFL. The other is the Denver Broncos, who are only barely above water at a 6-5 record. The three remaining teams, the Dallas Cowboys, Tennessee Titans and Cleveland Browns, all currently have seasons that are underwater, like the Bengals.The Cowboys, Titans and Browns all have less than a 1% chance of making the playoffs as of Nov. 23, according to the NFL. Meanwhile the Broncos have a 60% chance, while the Steelers have a 95% chance.The Steelers games are especially important, too, because of them both being AFC North conference games. While the odds for the Bengals to win the AFC North conference outright are highly unlikely at this point, it is still not impossible with a very muted performance by the Steelers and the Ravens for the rest of the season. The two teams have been neck-and-neck all season, competing for the title of divisional leader, with the Steelers narrowly managing to hang onto it for most of the 2024 season so far. In a much more likely scenario where the Bengals place third or even possibly second in the conference at the end of the season, the team can still make the playoffs with a wild card spot. Regardless, though, anything that the Bengals can do to blunt one of the AFC's best-performing teams this season will only serve to help their postseason odds.Another game that may prove hugely consequential in-between the two Steelers match-ups is the team's face-off against the Broncos, another AFC team that currently has more favorable odds than not to make the playoffs. With only so few games left, the difference between a win and a loss could prove determinative for who claims this year's three AFC wild card slots. Two Bengals wins against the Steelers and one against the Broncos boosts the Bengals' postseason odds to 57%, according to the New York Times' oddsmaker, roughly the same odds that the Broncos sit at now.While nothing short of winning all six of the Bengals remaining games will put the teams at 90% plus odds to make the playoffs, a sign that the team's season is over may come if the Bengals cannot beat the Steelers on Dec. 1 and lose even once to any of the three "easy win" teams of the Cowboys, Titans or Browns within the next three weeks. Then, the team's odds plummet to low single digits.In another scenario, if the team loses on Dec. 1 but then goes on to win all its remaining games (including their other game against the Steelers), the New York Times still only puts the Bengals' postseason odds at 37%. This means that the Bengals' road to the playoffs almost certainly runs through how the team performs in their two teams against the AFC North's current divisional leader, the Steelers. It will not be easy: Pittsburgh is one of the best teams in the league this year, with only the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills having greater win records in the AFC this year. Still, earlier this week, the Cleveland Browns proved that upsets can happen against Pittsburgh, after beating the team 24-19 in a Thursday back-and-forth nailbiter of a game. Now, Cincinnati just has to do the same.

With just six games in the regular season remaining for the Bengals, the team's playoff chances are now seeming ever more elusive for a team that just three seasons ago played in the Super Bowl.

Standing at a 4-7 season record, the team has squandered many win opportunities against teams that they have been able to beat in past seasons.

Now, oddsmakers are increasingly closer to reaching a verdict about whether the team will be able to make it back to the playoffs this year, and every week continues to look worse.

The result? As the Bengals' bye week rolls around in Week 12, the NFL's official Playoff Picture currently gives the team a 12% chance to make the playoffs.

Although these odds from the NFL may perhaps be at the low end of the spectrum, as media organizations such as The New York Times, (14%) ESPN (15%) and The Athletic (19%) give slightly better chances, the overall picture still remains clear.

The 2024 season started on a low note from the very first game -- an ominous loss to the New England Patriots. In their most recent match-up against the Patriots before this season in 2022, the Bengals won 22-18. However, this year, the Bengals lost 16-10 to the Patriots in their opening game of the year in what was widely considered to be an "easy win" for the team.

Despite this, the team has still managed to beat many other teams on the bottom of the NFL's standings this year, racking up wins against the Carolina Panthers, New York Giants, Cleveland Browns and Las Vegas Raiders.

However, when it comes to teams considered among the best in the league this year, including the Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens and Philadelphia Eagles, the team has come up disastrously short each and every time.

Now, the team has just six games to turn its season around. While it's certainly not impossible, it's shaping up to be a very tall order for the orange and black at this point in the season.

What makes the Bengals' situation so precarious is that even one more loss is likely to tank their season entirely, while two more will all but guarantee it. According to The New York Times' interactive oddsmaker, a loss against the Pittsburgh Steelers next week will send the team's postseason odds down to 3%. However, a win against the Steelers will raise the team's current postseason odds from 14% to 19%.

The two remaining games against the Steelers will likely be the two most important games for the team over these next two months, based on how they will affect the team's odds. The Steelers are only one of two teams that the Bengals will face for the rest of the season that, as of now, have positive win records in the NFL. The other is the Denver Broncos, who are only barely above water at a 6-5 record. The three remaining teams, the Dallas Cowboys, Tennessee Titans and Cleveland Browns, all currently have seasons that are underwater, like the Bengals.

The Cowboys, Titans and Browns all have less than a 1% chance of making the playoffs as of Nov. 23, according to the NFL. Meanwhile the Broncos have a 60% chance, while the Steelers have a 95% chance.

The Steelers games are especially important, too, because of them both being AFC North conference games. While the odds for the Bengals to win the AFC North conference outright are highly unlikely at this point, it is still not impossible with a very muted performance by the Steelers and the Ravens for the rest of the season. The two teams have been neck-and-neck all season, competing for the title of divisional leader, with the Steelers narrowly managing to hang onto it for most of the 2024 season so far. In a much more likely scenario where the Bengals place third or even possibly second in the conference at the end of the season, the team can still make the playoffs with a wild card spot. Regardless, though, anything that the Bengals can do to blunt one of the AFC's best-performing teams this season will only serve to help their postseason odds.

Another game that may prove hugely consequential in-between the two Steelers match-ups is the team's face-off against the Broncos, another AFC team that currently has more favorable odds than not to make the playoffs. With only so few games left, the difference between a win and a loss could prove determinative for who claims this year's three AFC wild card slots. Two Bengals wins against the Steelers and one against the Broncos boosts the Bengals' postseason odds to 57%, according to the New York Times' oddsmaker, roughly the same odds that the Broncos sit at now.

While nothing short of winning all six of the Bengals remaining games will put the teams at 90% plus odds to make the playoffs, a sign that the team's season is over may come if the Bengals cannot beat the Steelers on Dec. 1 and lose even once to any of the three "easy win" teams of the Cowboys, Titans or Browns within the next three weeks. Then, the team's odds plummet to low single digits.

In another scenario, if the team loses on Dec. 1 but then goes on to win all its remaining games (including their other game against the Steelers), the New York Times still only puts the Bengals' postseason odds at 37%. This means that the Bengals' road to the playoffs almost certainly runs through how the team performs in their two teams against the AFC North's current divisional leader, the Steelers.

It will not be easy: Pittsburgh is one of the best teams in the league this year, with only the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills having greater win records in the AFC this year. Still, earlier this week, the Cleveland Browns proved that upsets can happen against Pittsburgh, after beating the team 24-19 in a Thursday back-and-forth nailbiter of a game. Now, Cincinnati just has to do the same.

Previous articleNext article

POPULAR CATEGORY

Software

23715

Artificial_Intelligence

8879

Internet

17751