Local sports books might have slightly more open seats than usual for this Sunday's NFL schedule. That's because they figure to be in higher demand late Saturday night into early Sunday morning.
Formula 1 is taking over the Strip for the second straight year with the 2024 Las Vegas Grand Prix set to commence, and that includes sportsbooks. Typically ignored by Las Vegas casinos, Formula 1 gets an expanded wagering menu for the local stop.
I always try to keep it topical with Sunday Sweats so the final bet in this week's column will be on the race. Here's to cashing on action both in the streets and on the field.
Find all of this week's wagers below. This column is considered an extension of Weekend Wagers and plays from both will be tracked in the record. Nonpoint spread bets placed inside of the weekly NFL pick'em and elsewhere will also be accounted for here. Make sure to check back to lasvegassun.com Sunday for one final bet, on a prop in the Raiders' gameday section that will also be attached to the Sunday Sweats record.
Tasty Total (12-10, $200): Detroit Lions at Indianapolis Colts under 50.5 (Wynn)
$165 to win $150
Having already locked in under 50.5 points for Monday Night Football between the Ravens and Chargers, I might as well corner the market on totals' plays everyone will hate this week. Yes, the Lions went over this total by themselves in a 52-14 victory over the Titans last week but the Colts are more respectable. Both these teams run the ball at a rate above league average, and Indianapolis plays at one of the league's slowest paces. Those factors should make it tougher than it looks on the surface for this to turn into a shootout. Despite Detroit's reputation as one of the highest-flying offenses in recent memories, the Lions sit at 5-5 on the year in the over/under market. The totals are tight this week, but this is one that still sits ever-so-slightly too high.
Two- Or Three-Team Teaser (4-9, -$1,142): Miami Dolphins -1.5, Houston Texans -2 and Seattle Seahawks +7 at +160 (BetMGM)
$150 to win $240
BetMGM is giving the Seahawks the same treatment they gave the Saints last week. It's the only shop in town listing Seattle as an underdog, albeit at only +1. The Saints shoved it in the face of "the King of sportsbooks" with a 35-14 victory over the Browns, and hopefully the Seahawks can do the same over the Cardinals. I don't see many paths to the Cardinals blowing out the Seahawks on the road, so the latter should be safe at this price. Miami and Houston meanwhile are both trending up with some recent high-profile injury returners. Tennessee's season has slipped out of control, so Houston shouldn't have any problem just more or less needing to win this game. The Patriots are feistier but their defense is among the worst in the league. Tua Tagovailoa should tear it apart and continue on the Dolphins' offensive resurgence since his return.
Moneyline Parlay (2-9, -$667.50): Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Rams at +218 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
$160.21 to win $350
Denver's widespread moneyline price of -260 is not enough given both Las Vegas' dire injury situation and just the straight fact that it's a 6-point favorite in the game. The latter number should mathematically merit a higher moneyline. So, the real strategy this week is to find the right team(s) to pair with Bo Nix and the Broncos. I went with an underdog in an attempt to get a higher return as a boost to this snakebitten category. The Rams' offense is dynamic enough to attack an improved Eagles' defense and prevail in a high scoring game. It was nice that the SuperBook had what tied for the best price in town on the Rams, +130, as well as the Broncos.
Player Prop (13-7, $1,054): Saquon Barkley under 98.5 rushing yards at -115 (STN Sports)
$230 to win $200
Not only is the Rams' offense game but their defense might be a little better than advertised too. Los Angeles is 10 in the NFL in allowing only 4.3 yards per rush attempt. Barkley has run wild and beaten this number in four of his last five games, but that's largely because the Eagles have been blowing out a string of overmatched opponents. That's not how this game is going to be. Philadelphia is favored for a reason and may win -- though I certainly hope not given the above category -- but it shouldn't win by a large margin. The garbage-time carries that have helped Barkley post such a high-sky production shouldn't be in abundant supply against the Rams.
Anytime Touchdown (5-8, $396.50): Sam LaPorta at +270 (Caesars/William Hill)
$100 to win $270
Just in case my read in the totals section is wrong, I might as well have a backup plan. If the Lions at Colts game proves higher scoring than I anticipate, I think it will be because the Lions ignite and light up the scoreboard again. And if they do that, LaPorta should be in on the action. The Colts are the No. 30 rated team in the NFL in defending tight ends per the DVOA ratings. The second-year player out of Iowa is having a down year compared to his record-setting rookie campaign but he's still a matchup problem -- especially for a team like the Colts. This number is far too high as the now-healthy LaPorta should have a great chance to find the end zone for the fourth time this season.
Lookahead Line (9-6, $517.50): Cincinnati Bengals -2.5 -105 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (Caesars/William Hill)
$315 to win $300
This number implies the AFC North divisional rivals are just about evenly matched. I'm not so sure. Give me the team with the best unit by far, the Bengals' offense, regardless of what the win-loss records say. The Bengals are No. 8 in expected points added per play on the year; the Steelers are No. 9. And there's a better case that the Bengals can improve going forward, especially with some injuries likely clearing up out of a bye this weekend. The Steelers have been one of the best stories of the NFL season, but the most difficult stretch of their schedule starts now with a rested and desperate Bengals' side. Pittsburgh should decline a little as the season draws to a close.
Future Finding (0-1, -$100): Gonzaga to win Battle 4 Atlantis at +125 (BetMGM)
$300 to win $375
It's a tradition to toe into the holiday multiteam events in this column. Unfortunately, the offerings aren't as plentiful this year. Not as may sportsbooks have posted tournament future pools and those that did are holding a higher percentage than ever before. That leaves a chalky option for one of the two biggest events as the best bet. Gonzaga offers value at any plus-price because they are so much better than all the other teams joining it in Nassau for the annual event. Arizona is the only side remotely on its level, and the Wildcats are on the opposite side of the bracket. Gonzaga has a tough strength of schedule through four games and has still posted a +161 point differential. The Bulldogs have a full week off before opening the event against West Virginia, and should therefore look better than ever.
Nonfootball Play (6-5, $595): Carlos Sainz to finish on the podium in Las Vegas Grand Prix at +125 (Caesars/William Hill)
$200 to win $250
Ferrari is supposed to have all the speed in tonight's race, and it shouldn't just be Charles Leclerc. His teammate, Carlos Sainz, should also contend. Sainz has a pair of victories this year, including two races ago at the Mexico City Grand Prix, and shouldn't be outmatched equipment-wise by anyone in the race. He actually finished slightly faster than Leclerc in the second practice on Thursday night. Sainz is as low as -110 to podium (finish in the top three) at other sportsbooks, and most commonly at +110. Caesars is offering a more attractive price that will make me gladly bite. The race should be getting over right around Midnight so the prospects of Sunday's bottom line getting a head start are appealing.