Cade Cunningham has taken a massive step forward on offense this year, and the Hornets are about to find that out the hard way.
Perhaps the Luka Doncic-for-Anthony Davis trade was not the most riveting one of the NBA trade deadline, not after the Los Angeles Lakers voided their trade with the Charlotte Hornets over Mark Williams's physical.
Williams's return to Charlotte underscores the Hornets' vacuum in the middle without him, one that should still loom today against the Detroit Pistons.
Perhaps Mark Williams failing his physical should not be all that shocking. He's missed 26 games this season due to a preseason foot worry after back concerns cut short his 2023-24 season.
In those 26 games without Williams, Charlotte's defensive rating has been 114.5, better than the 116.1 with him. Neither number is particularly good; the rating without Williams would rank No. 22 in the NBA this season.
But considering the sustained stretch without Williams, the first month plus of the season while he was held out with that foot injury, the Hornets' defensive rating ranked No. 16 in the NBA. They held up well on the perimeter, specifically, ranking No. 12 by allowing opponents to make 35.5% of their 3-pointers, taking 37.7 per game, which is No. 15 in the NBA.
But some of that was because opponents did not settle for threes. Without Williams around, they drove into a lane bereft of defensive big men.
And that is how Cade Cunningham should thrive today. While he is happy to chuck from deep, it is not the linchpin of his game. He thrives in the lane and at the free throw line, going 13-for-13 there in each of Cunningham's last two games. These are the keys that have spurred him to clear this points prop in seven of his last nine games.
It warrants noting, Charlotte ranked No. 20 in that month plus without Williams in giving up 23.4 free throw attempts per game. The Hornets will send Cunningham to the line, which should seal this prop.
Tyrese Maxey Over 29.5 points (-105 at bet365)
As of Sunday morning, Philadelphia 76ers superstar Joel Embiid is considered questionable to play against the Milwaukee Bucks. His gradual recovery from a left toe injury kept him out of a back-to-back earlier this week.
While this is not a true back-to-back -- Philadelphia played in Detroit on Friday night -- this is still an abbreviated turnaround thanks to the early tip to avoid competing with the Super Bowl for viewers.
Often the best indicator of availability, sportsbooks do have Embiid listed amid player props. But they also have Tyrese Maxey's points prop set as if Embiid is not playing.
In 32 games without Embiid, Maxey has averaged 29.2 points this season. In 12 games with the big man, the point guard has averaged 24.2.
Taking this Over may then seem like a risk, but the reality is Maxey had exceeded this prop in seven straight games before Friday night, and even then, he scored 27 points. We are not far from a world where Maxey is the straw that stirs Philadelphia's drink.
Milwaukee's perimeter defense is not stellar, and with Giannis Antetokounmpo out today, the back-line support will be that much more porous. Expect Maxey to dictate the 76ers' offense, with or without Embiid in the lineup.
Scottie Barnes Under 7.5 rebounds (-125 at bet365)
The Houston Rockets may be in free fall. They've lost six straight games, four of which have been without point guard Fred VanVleet.
This dropoff has been most apparent defensively, with the Rockets' defensive rating falling to 121.0 in the last six games compared to 113.3 in the month before this stretch. However, their offensive rating has also fallen, down to 113.8 from 117.4 in the month before.
Houston's offensive rating has been slightly improved by the continued emphasis on the offensive glass. In the month before these miseries, the Rockets led the NBA in offensive rebounding rate, grabbing 37.7% of available chances. In the last six games, that has climbed to 40.9%.
The opposite end of the court should again be acknowledged; Houston's defensive rebounding rate fell to 63.9% from 69.3% in the previous month.
But one end of the court is more applicable to Scottie Barnes' rebounding habits. He does not grab many offensive boards. In the last 12 games, Barnes has collected multiple offensive rebounds only three times. He has logged no offensive rebounds as often as he has found more than two.
Barnes's season-long average of 7.7 rebounds per game is built on finding defensive boards, but those are Houston's offensive boards, the exact area the Rockets have always been strong this season and have now only improved at.
Houston may be in free fall, but it has one skill left to rely upon, and that skill should limit Barnes's rebounds.