During the 2016 U.S. presidential campaign, then-candidate Donald J. Trump took an extremely tough stance on bringing back jobs lost to foreign countries by incentivizing domestic manufacturing. Trump took a hard line against the Clean Power Plan, many times referring to it as a "jobs killer" and an "inflation creator." Energy independence became a resounding theme as the campaign approached the November election period.
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Campaigning in 2020, Trump softened his stance on clean energy and electric vehicles, noting "all forms of energy and power" will be needed to solve our increasing energy needs and to strengthen our approach to ever increasing concerns over domestic security issues. Trump proposed tax credits to enhance American manufacturing stating that "America First" does not mean "American Alone." Trump also stated, "Bringing back factories and jobs from China and other countries will lead to an unprecedented path for growth and independence."
In 2024, Trump emphasized releasing American energy production from all sources. "Buy American," "Hire American," "Bring home critical supply chains," "Restore American manufacturing, create jobs, wealth, and investment" all became important pieces of his overall "MAGA" platform. "Energy from all sources, oil, gas, nuclear and renewables will play a part in increasing American energy independence." Trump stated over and over.
Will all or part of the Inflation Reduction Act 2022 face a repeal process? Will the renewable energy market sector suffer if a partial or entire repeal takes place?
Despite a narrow passage, the IRA Act includes provisions supported by Democrats, Republicans, and Independents, reflecting widespread public backing. Changes are already happening.
A post from The White house Briefing Room dated Aug 16, 2024, notes more than 330,000 new jobs and more than $265 billion in clean energy investments have already been accomplished from the Act's provisions.
The Trump administration and the newly elected Congress have challenges given to them by voters: Secure the southern border, bring down inflation and interest rates, reduce crime, end conflicts in Isreal and Ukraine, and create jobs by reinvigorating American manufacturing. Narrow margins in the House will lead to the administration and the House being particularly careful as to the initiatives they take during the first year or two of this presidency.
IRA 2022 offers much more than support for the renewable energy market, it offers job creation, energy diversification, domestic security, and a path to a comprehensive energy approach. The legislation in general is supported by 75% of our elected legislative officials and is strongly popular with the public at large.
Supported by provisions in IRA 2022, as well as state and local government incentives, renewables are set to not only grow but also surpass earlier growth predictions year on year. The Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) recently issued projections of 9% a year-on-year U.S. solar industry growth from 2026 through 2029.
SEIA states the growth number would be higher if not for issues with labor availability, high-voltage equipment constraints, interconnection delays, inflation, and supply chain challenges. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects 5,500 GW of new renewable capacity will be operational by 2030. On Nov. 13, 2024, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) issued a bullish report for U.S. solar generation, forecasting increases of 34% in 2024 and 31% in 2025. The EIA report notes overall demand increases year-on-year by 3% due to increased air conditioning and data center power needs.
Projections for renewable growth in the U.S. market all concur with positive trends noting varying degrees of increases with all or most citing similar challenges as reported above in the SEIA recent report.
Momentum in the renewable energy market will not be hindered by changes in government leadership. Lawmakers unanimously agreed on the need to continue our path toward clean energy production and job creation within the renewable market. The IRA 2022 legislation may face tough scrutiny within the next two years of the Trump administration. The sections of the law controlling renewable tax credits, domestic manufacturing, and jobs creation will more than likely stand intact.
It will be the continuing job of domestic manufacturers to support the growing renewable energy market by adding or shifting capacity, investing capital in equipment and training, and growing their operational renewable energy initiatives. The renewable energy provisions within IRA 2022 will survive, growth within the domestic renewable market will continue at a strong pace, and domestic manufacturers will benefit from the ever-growing renewable market.