406 MT Sports
Beat writers Frank Gogola (Montana Grizzlies) and Victor Flores (Montana State Bobcats) give insights into what's going on with the football teams in Missoula and Bozeman this week leading up to the annual Brawl of the Wild.
Q: How would you summarize the stakes in this year's matchup for each team?
Gogola: Montana locked up a playoff berth with last week's win, so the pressure of that has been taken off this week. The Griz can earn a first-round bye in the postseason by knocking off the Cats. That would also deny the Cats their first perfect regular season. It could also take away their outright Big Sky title if UC Davis handles Sacramento State later that afternoon. Montana could also earn its first win in Bozeman since 2015. Additionally, the Griz senior class would secure a winning record in the series. Most are 2-1, while the rare players who didn't redshirt in 2019 are 2-2. Montana's last senior class to leave with a winning record was the 2016 group that went 3-1.
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Flores: A win would deliver the Bobcats their first undefeated regular season in program history and their first outright Big Sky Conference title since 1984 (also the last time they won a national championship). They're technically solo 2011 Big Sky champions, but they shared it with UM before the NCAA vacated its 36-10 win in Bozeman that year because boosters gave extra benefits to UM players. Beating the Grizzlies' on Saturday would also secure a top-two seed in the FCS playoffs for MSU, while a loss would drop the Cats to the No. 3 seed or worse and likely force them to win at least one road game in order to reach the championship. MSU's seniors enter Saturday with a 1-2 Brawl record, so a victory would prevent a losing record to their rival.
Q: Why do you think the last four games have resulted in a home team blowout win in spite of each team's top-15 rankings coming in?
Gogola: One factor is that the team that has scored first has won the past four games. Each time, that has been the home team. That strong start gets the home crowd into the game even more. Both venues have already been hostile environments for most opponents over the years. Then get a stop, score again and the game starts to get away. The home team has been leading by 14 or more points at the end of the first quarter in three of the past four games, with the other differential being a seven-point lead.
Flores: To piggyback off Frank's point, "seizing momentum" has been a key factor in the last four games, MSU head coach Brent Vigen said Monday. But the 2021 Cats and 2022 Griz made what looked like momentum-stopping plays early, and the team that scored first lost each Brawl from 2015-18. Vigen's and Bobby Hauck's teams have earned away wins and erased early deficits against good opponents, so it's hard to blame either coach for the road routs. The home teams have performed better in high-leverage spots (third down, fourth down, red zone) and haven't lost the turnover battle the last four Brawls, but the road teams often gained edges in those areas before 2019. As Vigen put it, the recent home dominance "doesn't necessarily make sense."
Q: What is one under-the-radar factor you think could make a difference in this year's game?
Gogola: It feels like we haven't seen the Griz run as many trick plays throughout this season as they have in previous years under Hauck. Putting those plays on film early in the season forces upcoming opponents to spend time preparing for them even though the Griz rarely run the same trick play twice in a year. The fact that they haven't put as many on film could catch the Cats off guard and provide a spark in a pivotal moment. That could be a fake field goal or a fake punt thrown for a pass, or even receivers like Junior Bergen or Sawyer Racanelli throwing a pass.
Flores: MSU's interior defensive line, namely starting nose tackle Paul Brott and defensive tackle Alec Eckert. MSU has allowed 113.6 rushing yards per game (16th in the FCS) on 3.8 yards per carry (31st). Those figures would be even stingier if the starters didn't build so many big leads, allowing opponents to gain some ground against MSU's reserves. The one team to rush for more than 200 yards against MSU this fall -- Eastern Washington -- got 75 on a well-executed trick play, and other good runs happened more because of poor run fits than poor D-line play, Vigen said a couple weeks ago.
Q: What do you predict will be the biggest difference between this year's game day environment and the last time it was in Bozeman in 2022?
Gogola: It's oddly similar to 2022. The Cats were the higher-ranked team, had the better record and were trying to finish an undefeated Big Sky run. The Griz had already lost three times as they were experiencing an underwhelming season after being picked to win the conference in the preseason. I wonder if there are even more nerves among Cats fans who are expecting this team to make it back to the national title game in Tommy Mellott's final season and potentially Brent Vigen's last year before taking a bigger job. Does the thought of "what if the Cats lose to the Griz?" even creep into their mind, followed by the thought of "what does that mean for MSU's postseason prospects?" It feels like all the pressure is on the Cats, and maybe the environment will reflect that early on and if they trail Montana at any point.
Flores: There won't be a "GameDay" environment this time around. The ESPN pregame show, which traveled to Bozeman two years ago, is in Columbus, Ohio, this week. MSU built a new scoreboard and upgraded its sound system before this season, making the already booming Bobcat Stadium extra electric. The Cats had to win the 2022 Brawl to clinch a co-Big Sky title. They've already done that this season, but I imagine the motivation to win it outright is just as high as it was to guarantee a share two seasons ago. Frank's right that the Cats probably face more pressure Saturday, although Vigen and many of his players might feel more comfortable than they did in 2022, when he and most of them had yet to beat the Griz.
Q: What is your favorite part of the festivities?
Gogola: The pregame lead-up to kickoff creates an unmatchable energy and electricity. Then the postgame celebration on the field with the trophy is always fantastic to take in. In between, I love seeing the fans passionately get into the game. That has been on display at such a high level in this rivalry.
Flores: I'll echo Frank and what I wrote in last year's Q&A, including the playing of Billy Idol's "Mony Mony" whenever the Cats win the Brawl at home. That kind of playful trash talk (from fans of both teams) elevates this rivalry to one of the best in sports.
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