NFL Week 12 odds, picks for all 13 games: Harbaugh bros. face off to cap week of playoff positioning

With six teams on bye, Week 12 offers the lightest slate of the NFL season so far, but there are still plenty of important games and intriguing matchups on tap.

The biggest game in Week 12 will be the last one, with the Baltimore Ravens and Los Angeles Chargers set to share the Monday Night Football spotlight. The first meeting between brothers John and Jim Harbaugh since Super Bowl XLVII doubles as a critical contest between teams jockeying for playoff positioning in the AFC.

Another matchup with postseason ramifications takes place on Sunday night when the streaking Philadelphia Eagles head west to take on the Los Angeles Rams. The Eagles have won six in a row to take the lead in the NFC East, while the Rams are just a game out of first place in the crowded NFC West.

Like the Rams, the San Francisco 49ers also are sitting at .500 and currently outside of the playoffs. The defending NFC champions head to Lambeau Field to face the Green Bay Packers, one of the teams they are chasing in the standings.

We have odds, previews, how to watch and expert picks for each game. But first, let's review how our experts did last week.

The Pittsburgh Steelers face a quick turnaround on the road against the Cleveland Browns after a massive win to take control of the AFC North. Riding a five-game winning streak after a win over Baltimore, Pittsburgh is favored by close to a field goal against another division rival. The Browns regressed with a pair of sizable losses the last two weeks after playing well enough to beat the Ravens to end October.

Managing only six field goals to beat Baltimore, the Steelers need to finish drives with touchdowns to elevate their game. Pittsburgh's red-zone offense sits 30th in the NFL, and its goal-to-go offense ranks last in the league.

While wide receiver George Pickens continues his ascent to No. 1 receiver since Russell Wilson's debut, the Steelers lack a secondary threat to open up the passing game. Pickens has more than double the targets and receiving yards of any Steelers teammate. The rest of the team's receiving corps -- along with tight end Pat Freiermuth -- have yet to establish a consistent rapport with Wilson.

A commitment to the run puts Pittsburgh No. 3 in the league in time of possession despite being a modest 26th in rushing yards per play. The Steelers could find gaps against a Cleveland defense that allowed 214 rushing yards to New Orleans in Week 11.

Offense doesn't come easy for the Browns despite the change to Jameis Winston at quarterback. The return of lead back Nick Chubb (3.1 yards per carry) from injury hasn't helped one of the worst rushing attacks (29th) in football.

Against a Steelers defense that slowed Lamar Jackson and the NFL's best offense, Cleveland needs Winston to deliver timely throws without turning the ball over. Winston's developing connection with receiver Jerry Jeudy should be featured in the Browns' game plan.

As losers of four straight heartbreakers, Tampa Bay couldn't have drawn a better Week 12 opponent for a get-right game. The Giants, who at 2-8 have bumped Daniel Jones down to third-string quarterback and are playing for nothing but the first overall pick, are just who the Buccaneers were looking for. With Mike Evans set to return from injury, the Bucs are comfortable road favorites in New Jersey and have a shot to close the narrow gap in the NFC South race.

Both teams are coming off a bye, and Tampa needed the break more than just about any other team. After Evans and Chris Godwin went down in the 10-point loss to Baltimore, the Buccaneers fell in each of the next three weeks by seven points or less (including an overtime loss to then-unbeaten Kansas City).

Baker Mayfield's numbers took a hit against San Francisco, but he's still in the midst of a career year and should feast against New York and their usage of single safety coverage. The Giants use single-high coverage fourth-most in the league, and Mayfield is in the top three in both completion percentage and touchdowns against it. New York leads the league in sacks from that alignment, but no team protects their quarterback better than Tampa (24.9 percent pressure rate), and given the Giants' vulnerability to quick passes, expect Mayfield's stat sheet to bounce back.

Tommy DeVito will start for New York, despite them signing Drew Lock to a $4 million deal to be their backup. While that is a pretty clear statement of tanking intentions, DeVito does have his pluses. He's far more comfortable throwing outside the numbers than Jones was, getting six of his eight touchdowns in 2023 on such passes without ever throwing a pick.

DeVito is also better at the deep ball than Jones, which is music to Malik Nabers' ears. The rookie has 41 percent of the team's air yards despite missing two games but has had to work short and intermediate routes to get them. Jones completed just 20 percent of his deep throws, worse than everyone but Deshaun Watson, Jacoby Brissett, and Caleb Williams. Last season, DeVito completed 46 percent of his deep passes and had a success rate 10 percent better than expected.

That won't change the fact Tampa should have no trouble covering the spread, but it gives fantasy owners a reason to tune in.

The 9-1 Detroit Lions are the most consistent and formidable team in the NFL right now. The 5-6 Indianapolis Colts are among the most capricious and volatile. Sunday's matchup makes for a convincing style clash, with Dan Campbell's group favored by more than a touchdown.

The Lions are looking like world-beaters in 2024. They are first in points scored, third in net yards per game, second in passing yards per play and eighth in yards per carry. David Montgomery has 10 total touchdowns in 10 games -- an impressive feat, but downright loopy considering that backfield mate Jahmyr Gibbs has nine of his own. In last weekend's 52-6 home rout of the Jacksonville Jaguars, Detroit generated 645 yards of offense and allowed just 170. The Lions have scored 40 or more points four times since Week 4.

The Jared Goff-led automated scoring machine has already earned praise, and now Detroit's defense is coming into its own. Jack Campbell and Alex Anzalone grade out as top-tier linebackers, and the safety tandem of Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph has 11 interceptions.

Indianapolis must be "speed blue" -- yes, that's the official Pantone color code -- with envy. Consistency has eluded the Colts. They benched their quarterback, former No. 4 overall pick Anthony Richardson, only to reinstall him under center two games later. Four of their six losses were by one score -- with two losses by a total of five points to the division-leading Houston Texans. Defensive captain DeForest Buckner suffered a high ankle sprain in Week 2. Yet they enter Sunday's home contest still active in the AFC playoff picture.

In a do-or-die road win over the New York Jets, Richardson threw for 272 yards and had three total touchdowns. He looked good and will need to be that or better if the Colts are to pull off a colossal upset.

The Houston Texans were able to get back on track on Monday night in Dallas after back-to-back losses and now have a chance to start stacking wins again when they host the Tennessee Titans on Sunday. The Texans are more than a touchdown favorite in the AFC South matchup.

Even though he did not put up huge numbers on Monday night (four catches for 54 yards), star wide receiver Nico Collins' return to the lineup was a huge lift for both the Texans offense as a whole and quarterback C.J. Stroud. Wide receiver injuries played a major role in some of the Texans' offensive struggles, and getting Collins back can be a game-changer for the offense. They still have to do better protecting Stroud. The Titans pass-rush has only recorded 20 sacks this season -- 26th in the league -- but they are allowing just 6.4 yards per pass attempt, the second-lowest mark in the NFL.

While nothing is a given in the NFL, it would be quite the upset if the Titans were able to go into Houston and get a win. The Titans' only two wins this season have come against a Skylar Thompson-led Dolphins team and in an overtime win at home against a New England team starting a rookie quarterback. Turnovers have been a major issue for Tennessee's offense all season, whether it has been Will Levis or Mason Rudolph in the lineup, and that could be a problem against a Texans defense that has created 20 takeaways this season, the second-highest total in the league.

Along with their brutal record, the Titans are just 1-9 against the spread this season, and each of their past four losses has been by double digits. Houston is 5-5-1 against the spread overall and only 2-2-1 at home, while the Texans are just 1-2-1 against the spread as home favorites.

The Miami Dolphins have almost no margin for error, but their remaining schedule gives them at least some sort of path to playoff contention in the AFC Wild Card race. The Dolphins are a touchdown favorite this week when they host the struggling New England Patriots led by rookie Drake Maye.

Even when the Patriots were at their peak, games in Miami always seemed to be a struggle for them. That is not likely to change with what is one of the worst rosters the Patriots have had in decades. Maye is doing everything he can with nine touchdown passes in his first seven games, but there is simply not enough talent around him -- on either side of the ball -- to take advantage of his talent.

Miami, meanwhile, is finally starting to put things together after the return of starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.

The Dolphins have won back-to-back games for the first time this season and have scored at least 23 points in the four games since Tagovailoa has returned to the lineup. They never scored more than 16 points in the games that he was sidelined. The only game Miami won in Tagovailoa's absence was at New England, 15-10, which also happened to be the last game the Patriots started Jacoby Brissett.

The Dolphins are 4-6 against the spread overall for the season but only 1-4 against the spread as a home favorite. Most of those games, however, came without Tagovailoa in the lineup.

The Patriots are 3-2 covering the spread as road underdogs.

There's no way either the Dallas Cowboys or Washington Commanders saw themselves in the positions they're in heading into the back half of November. The Cowboys are reeling at 3-7, an unmitigated disaster for a franchise with three straight 12-win seasons. They'll be two-score underdogs on Sunday, facing a 7-4 Commanders squad light-years ahead of schedule.

Despite high-profile playoff losses, this Dallas core has been consistently good in recent regular seasons -- leading the NFL in scoring twice, and ranking top 10 in points for and against every year since 2020. The horrid 2024 campaign will force a reckoning throughout the franchise. Cowboys home wins have previously been this sport's closest thing to a surefire bet. This season, they are 0-5 at AT&T Stadium, with humiliating losing margins of 25 (New Orleans), 28 (Philadelphia) and 38 (Detroit). The only reason to watch them now is for fantasy purposes, with CeeDee Lamb and Rico Dowdle factoring in down the stretch.

With Dak Prescott's season-ending surgery and a Dallas defense that has cratered in every team metric, this game will be Washington's to lose. The Commanders have the second-most expected points from rushing this season, per Football Reference. That mark is higher than the dynamic ground games in Baltimore and Detroit. Washington is also tied for the fewest turnovers in the league -- extra impressive considering it hasn't hit its bye week yet.

Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels is rightfully garnering love from across the football universe, but this defense is respectable too. Offseason veteran additions Dante Fowler Jr. and Frankie Luvu are both on pace to smash career-highs in sacks. And 34-year-old Bobby Wagner is still at an All-Pro level. The Commanders should enjoy an advantage on both sides of the ball, making this a steep trap game for a franchise in pursuit of its first winning season since 2016 ... when it went 8-7-1 and missed the playoffs.

The streaking Minnesota Vikings take on a Chicago Bears team that hasn't won a game in more than a month. The Vikings are road favorites for this NFC North clash.

Minnesota (8-2) has won three in a row, holding opponents to an average of 11 points per game during that stretch. The Vikings' top-10 defense has been complemented by Sam Darnold's resurgent campaign. Darnold is top 10 in the NFL in both passer rating (100.0) and touchdown passes (19). The downside is that he's also among the league leaders in interceptions (10) and has committed at least one turnover in three straight games.

Chicago (4-6) is desperate to end its four-game losing streak, which has seen the team lose in seemingly every way possible. Last week it was courtesy of a blocked field goal by the Green Bay Packers, another painful ending that overshadowed the improvement shown by the offense and rookie Caleb Williams following a coordinator switch.

New play-caller Thomas Brown's debut coincided with Williams putting together one of his best performances, including a season-high 70 rushing yards. The Bears' run/pass balance will be something to watch as they face a defense that's No. 1 against the run and fourth in sacks (35). Even though the offense produced 391 total yards last week, 179 of those on the ground, Williams was sacked three times to bring his league-leading total to 41.

Four of Chicago's six losses have come by six points or fewer, which speaks to how well the defense has played. This unit has performed particularly well against the pass, which bodes well for this matchup. Then again, the Bears have lost four straight at home to the Vikings so there's present and past history for them to try and overcome on Sunday.

After falling at Buffalo to end their undefeated season, the Kansas City Chiefs take to the road again to play the -- rejuvenated? -- Carolina Panthers. Facing one of the league's rebuilding teams, the Chiefs hope to get Patrick Mahomes back on track. Coming off their bye week and riding a two-game winning streak, the Panthers are showing more fight in recent weeks. The Chiefs are double-digit favorites in this matchup.

Protecting Mahomes is a must for Kansas City. Against Buffalo, Mahomes took two sacks and was hit by six different Bills defenders. Although Kansas City remains in the chase for the AFC's top seed, Mahomes is tied for the league lead in interceptions through inconsistent play during the regular season.

The potential return of lead back Isiah Pacheco from injured reserve could lift the Chiefs offense. Kansas City is 29th in rushing yards per play this season, struggling to find a suitable replacement since Pacheco's Week 2 injury. Carolina's defense rates near the bottom of the NFL in most statistical categories, giving Kansas City's offense a chance to reset after some recent physical matchups.

Bryce Young remains the starting QB for the Panthers after two straight victories. Young still faces turnover questions but deserves credit for improved poise after leading two game-winning scoring drives.

Fresh off a new contract, running back Chuba Hubbard will get plenty of work. Tenth in yards per carry, the Panthers backfield gets a talent infusion with the season debut of injured second-round pick Jonathon Brooks.

Kansas City sports a stellar third-ranked run defense, which could force Young into more throws than anticipated.

The Denver Broncos look to maintain their playoff positioning when they go for a season sweep of the reeling Las Vegas Raiders in Week 12. The Broncos are road favorites in this AFC West matchup.

Denver (6-5) is currently a game ahead of the Indianapolis Colts for the final wild-card spot in the AFC. The Broncos are coming off their most impressive offensive showing of the season, with rookie quarterback Bo Nix throwing for 307 yards and four touchdowns in a 38-6 home rout of the Atlanta Falcons.

Nix has thrown nine touchdown passes with just one interception in his last four games, compared to five apiece in his first seven. If he continues this level of passing production, Denver could be a tough team to beat down the stretch when factoring in its stout defense.

Las Vegas (2-8) simply can't beat any team right now. The Raiders have lost six in a row, a skid that started in Week 5 with a 34-18 Broncos victory. On offense, Las Vegas is dead last in rushing yards per game (75.2), and three different quarterbacks have combined to throw as many interceptions as touchdown passes (11 each).

The one bright spot for the Raiders has been rookie tight end Brock Bowers. He is second in the NFL in receptions (70) and 10th in receiving yards (706). How he fares against Denver's seventh-ranked passing defense should be worth watching, provided Gardner Minshew II has enough time to throw the ball. The Broncos are No. 1 in the league with 39 sacks.

Besides the issues on offense, Las Vegas is last in the league in turnover margin (-15) and 29th in scoring defense (28.5 points per game allowed). But the Raiders do have one thing going for them -- history. Denver has lost eight straight road games to their divisional rivals, a streak that goes back to when the Raiders were still in Oakland.

One game separates the Arizona Cardinals from the other three teams of the NFC West as the Cardinals go on the road as slight underdogs to face the Seattle Seahawks. Coming off its bye week, division-leading Arizona is rolling and on a four-game winning streak. Seattle resuscitated its season with a critical comeback road victory in San Francisco.

The Cardinals have played their way into playoff position with a balanced offense. Quarterback Kyler Murray (ranked fifth in completion percentage) and lead back James Conner co-pilot an attack capable of doing damage passing (ninth in yards per pass play) or on the ground (second in yards per rush).

Arizona's top target tight end Trey McBride -- who ranks third among TEs in receiving yards per game -- and emerging star wideout Marvin Harrison Jr. give Murray plenty of options. But even with dynamic pass catchers, the Cardinals could lean heavily on Conner since Seattle has one of the league's worst run defenses, ranked 27th in opponents rushing yards per game.

Gutsy play from quarterback Geno Smith and Seattle's offense orchestrated a game-saving touchdown against the Niners. The win helped steady the Seahawks, who had lost five of their last six games.

Seattle is second in passing yards per game and sports a diverse group of receivers capable of doing damage. But lead back Kenneth Walker III hasn't gained much traction after a hot start this season. The Seahawks' running game (28th in yards per game) ranks near the bottom and needs to improve to complement Seattle's productive passing game. A league-leading 11 interceptions from Smith, who often needs to force throws to offset the lack of a rushing attack, is the major red flag of the Seahawks' passing game.

Although Arizona's defense is below league average in most metrics, the unit has allowed only three total touchdowns during the four-game winning streak -- all of which were surrendered to Miami.

Two of the sport's most storied franchises vie for a critical win at Lambeau Field. The 5-5 San Francisco 49ers face the 7-3 Green Bay Packers, with the home side opening as near-field-goal favorites.

The Packers won in Chicago off a last-second blocked kick, emblematic of a talented team that's slightly overachieving -- Football Reference has them at an expected win-loss mark of 5.9-4.1. Green Bay is in the top 10 in scoring and points against but has had to gut out suspenseful wins over the Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9) and Indianapolis Colts (5-6), two teams struggling to find an identity. Jordan Love's offense was outgained by Caleb Williams' last Sunday, and the Packers' high turnover rate continues to blight promise.

As the air thins, the Packers should shift more toward traditionalism. They're very good on the ground with Josh Jacobs' 4.8 yards per carry and an elite offensive line. The defense sets the edge and forces turnovers without taking excess risk -- ranking fourth-lowest in blitz rate yet fifth-highest in quarterback hurry rate.

This is an uncomfortable matchup for San Francisco because Brock Purdy has thrived against the blitz in his tenure as Niners quarterback, and Christian McCaffrey is still searching for his usual excellence after missing the first eight games with an Achilles injury. But after Brandon Aiyuk was shelved for the remainder of 2024, Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall stepped in and up admirably

The Niners have endured dispiriting collapses -- they've somehow lost to all three division rivals in games where they were leading at the two-minute warning. Last week's disappointment came at home against the Seahawks when Geno Smith rushed for a touchdown with 12 seconds left. Yet, for all the calamity, San Francisco is just one game behind the 6-4 Cardinals in the NFC West, as are the Seahawks and Rams. An upset in Green Bay would help ameliorate the 49ers' strange 2024 season vibes.

After a 1-4 start and injuries to their star receivers, the Los Angeles Rams are finally grooving on offense. And after last season's collapse quashed enthusiasm, the Philadelphia Eagles have put together a top defense. Football's conditions are fleeting. Sometimes, that's a good thing.

The 5-5 Rams host the 8-2 Eagles Sunday night, the latter as slight road favorites. Los Angeles has scored 26 or more points in three of its last four outings. Philly has held five of its last six opponents under 20.

The Rams' surge is all the more impressive considering its chaos along the offensive line. On the edge, Rob Havenstein has battled an ankle injury. In the interior, Jonah Jackson fractured his scapula, then got benched for rookie Beaux Limmer. Guard Steve Avila and tackle Alaric Jackson have also missed time. The run has been flat as a result -- 30th in the league in yards per rush.

Matthew Stafford has been resilient under center. And those two star receivers are back with a vengeance -- last week, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua each topped 100 yards and caught a combined three touchdowns.

Philadelphia has its own elite receivers in A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. But this is a run-first team -- atop the NFL in rushing yards per game, attempts and touchdowns. Saquon Barkley is in Offensive Player of the Year talks. And Jalen Hurts is practically automatic on the "Brotherly Shove" goal-line call.

The units on the other side of the ball aren't quite as close. Philly's defense has allowed the second-fewest yards per play and is fifth in red zone rate. The Rams have a well-rounded pass rush -- four guys have more than four sacks -- but they enter 29th in net yards per pass attempt and have given up triple-digit rushing yardage in all but two games.

Don't look now, but Justin Herbert is quietly making an MVP case. Since Week 5, he's thrown for 1,608 yards and eight touchdowns and has been the engine of LA's four-game win streak. That case can get a little louder if he leads the Chargers to an upset of Lamar Jackson and the favored Ravens Monday night.

Herbert engineered a game-winning one-minute drill to beat the Bengals in Week 10 and will likely have to be the hero again this week since no one runs on Baltimore. Jim Harbaugh worked hard early to make the rush a keystone of the Chargers attack, but his brother John has the Ravens allowing just 77 yards per game on the ground, and they have surrendered the fewest runs of 10 or more yards.

Baltimore is among the worst pass defenses in the league, however, and given Los Angeles' recent passing boom and Herbert's stellar play (one interception all season), it's no surprise this game has the highest over/under of the week.

Despite last week's box score, the Ravens offense is a scoring machine, averaging 30 points per game. Until Pittsburgh bottled them up, the Ravens hadn't scored less than 20 all year, and they've scored less than 30 only twice in the last eight weeks. The Chargers defense is good, but it's not Steelers good, so Jackson and company should be back to form.

Jackson has a much more compelling MVP case, comfortably leading the league in passer rating and embarrassing the field in EPA (he's nearly 40 points higher than second-place Jared Goff). He and Derrick Henry have been effective counterweights to the porous pass defense, but given the way the Chargers are surging and the fact Baltimore commits the most penalties in the league, the Ravens will have to be in top form to get out of LA with a cover.