After winning their Wild Card matchups, the No. 2 seed Philadelphia Eagles host the No. 4 seed Los Angeles Rams on Sunday in the Divisional Round.
The winner of this game will advance to the NFC Championship on January 26th, where they'll face the winner of the Commanders-Lions game.
The oddsmakers favor Philadelphia ahead of kickoff as the Eagles are 6 to 6.5-point favorites, depending on the platform. The over/under for the game can be found at 43.5 across all major sportsbooks.
The Eagles gain a massive advantage in the trenches with a projected snowstorm in Philadelphia this Sunday. This game is likely centered around each team's rushing attack, and few teams are equipped to match the Eagles in that style.
These conditions likely tip the scale in favor of Philadelphia, as I think the Rams' don't have the personnel to slow down the run on defense or the offensive line talent to match the production on offense.
Philadelphia has entered halftime with a lead in their last eight games and led by four or more in seven. That trend includes a Week 12 showdown with the Rams, where Philadelphia led by six at halftime and won 37-20.
The weather should also impact how the Eagles operate, which could lead to very few pass attempts for Jalen Hurts. Each major sportsbook currently has Hurts' pass attempts total at 25.5. In his nine games with 27 or fewer pass attempts, Hurts has thrown over 17.5 completions just once. I expect that trend to continue if the Eagles are ahead as expected in this contest.
Best odds: -275 at FanDuel
Winners in 13 of their past 14 games, there are few teams with more momentum than the Philadelphia Eagles right now. No team runs the football more than the Eagles, and they like it that way.
The lead ball carrier is star running back Saquon Barkley, who torched the Rams for 255 rushing yards in Week 12 this season. Los Angeles allowed the 10th most yards per carry to the position and should expect plenty of opportunities for #26 this Sunday.
The offense has been extremely efficient this season, leading the league in time of possession. Additionally, they rank in the top ten for first downs and third-down conversion rate (41.7%).
Defensively, the Eagles have been dominant this season. No secondary allows fewer yards per completion, and the Los Angeles passing attack is a key facet of its offense. The Rams average the 11th-most yards per throw and have centered their success around getting the ball to wide receiver Puka Nacua.
The Eagles cornerback room featuring Quinyon Mitchell, Darius Slay, and Cooper DeJean has flourished under the coaching of defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. If the team can keep Matthew Stafford in check, the odds shift heavily in their favor.
Best odds: +228 at Caesars
A large part of Philadelphia's success this season has come from turnovers on defense. They've recorded one or more takeaways in 11 of their past 12 games and have 15 total in their past four games.
However, the Rams average the fourth-least giveaways per game (0.8) and do a great job of taking care of the football. Los Angeles was 5-1 this season in games they did not have a turnover and 6-2 in games without an interception.
The Rams' pass rush has started to catch fire lately, recording nine sacks in their Wild Card victory over the Minnesota Vikings. The Eagles allow the second-highest sack rate to opposing defenses. Despite not throwing much, Los Angeles can get in the backfield and make Jalen Hurts uncomfortable.
While the total sacks aren't a strong indicator of the Eagles' success, that pass rush can get Hurts with happy feet and inefficient play to limit the passing attack. All three of Philadelphia's losses this season came in games where he Eagles averaged 6.1 yards or less per throw.
It will be difficult to pull off the victory, especially in winter conditions that favor the Eagles' playstyle. However, Sean McVay is one of the top offensive minds in football, and will help give his team a leg up on Nick Sirianni in this high-stakes game between two worthy opponents.